Seton Hall Update

Seton Hall goes for its 4th straight win tonight against Providence at the Dunkin Donuts Center. The Pirates are more or less where I thought they would be at the beginning of the season. At 12-6, 3-3, the Pirates have lost two games they should have won (Northwestern and Marquette) and lost two important "swing" games that they needed to win to have any realistic shot at the NCAA Tournament this year (@Richmond and @Rutgers). In fairness, Marquette is a lot better than I thought at the beginning of the season, but the Hall should still have come away with a win at home against a very young Golden Eagles team. On the bright side, the Pirates won two road games I thought they would certainly lose; the thumping of N.C. State and the "miracle on hardwood" at the Carrier Dome, where, as the clock ticked down in the second half, Seton Hall actually had more turnovers than field goals. So, they didn't get here exactly the way I foresaw, but here they are, nonetheless. So what is in store for the boys from South Orange?

First of all, let's not get delusional, at least not right away. The NCAA Tournament is still pretty much out of reach. The Big East Tournament and the NIT are not. Three more wins would insure the Hall of no worse than a 15-13 overall record (not including a possible Big East Tournament game). That should be good enough for the NIT and the boys certainly have three more wins on the schedule, it they don't completely fall apart (see 44-42 home loss to Northwestern). They may even win three more games by Thursday of next week. Qualifying for the Big East Tournament will be tougher. The Hall has games against UConn, West Virginia, and Pitt, all teams that are now playing only to determine their seedings in the Big East and NCAA Tournaments. They gobble up small fries like Seton Hall and spit them out as RPI power rankings. They have games against Rutgers, St. John's, and Cincinatti, all of which are similarly situated with the Pirates in the standings and are fighting for their post-season lives. Then there are four games against Big East bottom feeders Notre Dame, Providence, DePaul, and South Florida. However, Providence and South Florida are on the road, and ND and DePaul have both scored big upsets this year. Realistically, I can see the Hall winning 5 of these games, finishing 8-8 in the Big East, and qualifying for the Big East Tournament.

Now, lets put aside reason and accountability. In other words, think like a Mets fan. Let's say the Hall wins their next three games (@Providence, Rutgers, @S. Florida). These are games they should win, so let's go with that. At 15-6, 6-3, they will be poised to make a legitimate run at an NCAA Tournament bid. They don't have to beat UConn or W.Va., but they will have to look good trying (see, by contrast, 93-40 loss to Duke). They next will need to win three of their remaining 5 games (ND, St. John, DePaul, Cincinatti, Pitt). At 18-10, 10-6, they would be firmly on the bubble. A win in the Big East Tournament would seal the deal. It is, in some respects, plausible. What is not plausible is that this team could win 9 of their final 13 games, which is what they will have done if they accomplish this. Toto, we're not in South Orange any more.

Reality Check: In the best case scenario, the Pirates will finish 17-11, 8-8; first round loss in the Big East Tournament, first round loss in the NIT. The worst case scenario would be, well, worse.